Tuesday, 23 July 2013
Earthquakes in Southern Cook Strait
This is a computer simulation of the seismic waves from the M6.5 'quake propagating across the North Island and the adjacent sea floor:
New Zealand's background risk of earthquake probabilities has been calculated for the whole country. Once a reasonably large earthquake has occurred, these background risks of a larger quake increase for a while in the local area, and a sequence of aftershocks follows that typically fits into a fairly predictable pattern of decreasing intensity over time.
In the video below Matt Gerstenberger explains how these calculations are made to produce probability tables and maps for future aftershocks.
For the latest information about the number and magnitude of aftershocks that have occurred in Cook Strait, as well as forecast probabilities for future quakes, have a look at this GeoNet page